Differential Trump Analysis

Some in the Alt-Right are despairing over Trump’s interviewing of various candidates for cabinet positions, including beltway insiders, party hacks and financial oligarchy frontmen. It is too early to despair over these moves. In fact, the failure to make these moves would be cause for despair. Let’s apply differential analysis to this situation and see why. The possible variations we will consider is that Trump is real or he is fake, and Trump is naive or he is clever. Then, we will consider how he would be acting now, with respect to cabinet interviews, in each case.

Fake but Naive Trump

This case does not exist. Fake Trump cannot also be naive.

Fake but Clever Trump

This is the case the Alt-Right is concerned about. Fake Trump must also be clever. But, a fake Trump would also resemble a party hack, because he would be one, at least in the Orwellian sense of “The Party”. Fake Trump has no need to mollify the Alt-Right as the counter-revolution has already been won. Fake Trump would then be behaving exactly as he is.

Real but Naive Trump

This is the Trump which would be vulnerable to a “faithless elector” campaign (described in detail here, here, here and here). Oblivious to the Electoral College danger prior to December 19th, a real but naive Trump would be stumbling through a field of daisies imagining the game already won. This Trump would be putting smiles on a lot of Alt-Right faces, but have the potential for losing it all.

Real but Clever Trump

A real but clever Trump would, for now, masquerade as Fake But Clever Trump. Understanding the Electoral College risk, as described previously on this blog, he would be heavily “virtue signalling” to weaken and undermine the faithless elector movement. Recall that this astroturf movement has at least three components. One component targets hardcore electors (who will not flip no matter what) with threats as a public spectacle, another component privately targets party hack electors with bribes and extortion to abstain, while the third component similarly targets the party hacks to inject a third alternative. Whether any countermeasures to any such astroturf movement would actually work, a real but clever Trump would attempt to neutralize the last two (the first is of no threat in any case) by behaving exactly as he is.


Prior to the Electoral College, if Trump’s cabinet interviews were living up to superficial expectations of the Alt-Right, then that would be cause for concern. However, his current behavior, prior to the Elector College, is not in itself justification to be worried about post-Inauguration behavior. Superficially, Fake But Clever Trump and Real But Clever Trump would be indistinguishable at this point, although the involvement of Sessions weighs more heavily toward the latter. Be prepared for the worst, but wait and see.

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[…] Is he, or isn’t he? […]


It’s obvious to me that this man is no one’s fool. I’ve followed this from day one and all I have seen is a brilliant man destroying the media and establishment at every turn. That cannot be just coincidence. It has to be planned so that totally rules out naive in any form.

So by ruling that out we’re down to fake or real and clever.

The man we see today is the man we have seen for 30 years in public life. Egotistical, loud, sometimes obnoxious, outspoken, opinionated, not politically correct, politically savvy, knows how to play the game to win.

The last one being one of the most important point, along with egotistical in my opinion.

He has for years played whichever side of the political field that benefited him in business. That makes good business sense. Which at the time was all he cared about.

We’re seeing the same thing going on now except he’s playing the political game as he played the business game. Keeping his opponents guessing what his next play is. Misdirection. Drawing attention to points HE wants the media and establishment to focus on not necessarily what he is actually doing at the moment. He knows how to push their hot buttons and uses it against them.

So I think we can definitely rule IN clever.

So that leaves us with fake or real.

Again, as stated above, those who have paid attention have seen this man for 30 years in public life. To me he seems to have been extremely consistent for that entire time. He has played the business game to win. Period. Whatever that meant at the moment. Kiss up to democrats? Ok, let’s do it. Kiss up to republicans? Ok, let’s do it.

That is where the egotistical comes in. His ego will not let him lose if there is a way to win.

Do I agree with everything he says and does? Heck no, but I’m not going to for anyone in political office.

Do I understand what he is doing and how? I believe so.

This is the real clever Donald Trump being himself.

Will he get everything right? Absolutely not. He’s definitely not perfect. However, if he can just avoid do something hugely wrong, (Romney as SOS comes to mind) he will be mostly successful compared to what we have had for decades, if not centuries, as POTUS.

As long as he can keep the people behind him, he can accomplish huge things. We literally have the opportunity to return to a Constitutional Republic. Do I expect that to happen, NO, but the opportunity is there with enough support from the people and he seems to be able to generate that support at this time.

As you say, wait and see. However, I don’t think the wait and see is to determine who Trump is but how far he is willing to go and just exactly what direction he will go.

He has the opportunity for extreme good AND extreme harm.

On another note pertaining to the electors and how he is playing that part of the game. I would not at all be surprised to see the pick for SOS go until AFTER the 19th, using Romney as the carrot to possibly keep some of the “nevertrumpers” in the fold. Just a thought.


I’m going to (mostly) agree with what Lordchamp said.

And throw something out there just as a data point to maybe understand who Trump is and how and why he does what he does.

This may seem like tinfoil time – but like I said: just a data point.

My wife reads the magazines in the checkout aisle at the supermarket for the horoscopes. She has seen an astrologist in the past. So by osmosis – I pick up on the stuff.

(ed. I wouldn’t immediately discount these stereotypes completely. Infants and children go through distinct developmental stages, especially in-utero and post-partum, and seasonal variations could affect how a child emerges from a given stage. For the ancients, seasonal fluctuations were probably more pronounced than what we experience; hardly any American mother has a flaccid winter teat, for example. Although the effect of these seasonal variations is probably muted today, there is no doubt some remaining influence on personality. We ignore long-established stereotypes at our peril.)

Trump is a Gemini. Go read up on the personality traits of Gemini’s and a lot of what he has done will start to make sense. Geminis allegedly are a personality type that can hold two competing thoughts in their head at the same time. They can schmooze people like nobody’s business. I went and did a little bit of searching – and supposedly Geminis are at the bottom of the entire zodiac as far as criminal behavior. To me that means they won’t go out of their way to screw you. They will try to do what’s right. They may tell you something you want to hear – but they won’t do it as a complete and total lie.

I think the alleged Gemini personality ties right in with what we have seen him do all thru the election process. He was playing 3 dimensional chess when the rest of the field was playing checkers.

My take is that he’s got a goal in mind – it’s probably the “Make America Great Again” thing the he constantly pushes. The only question that really needs to be answered – and he may never give you the answer outright because of all the enemies swirling around him: is exactly what is Donald Trump’s vision of a Great Again America?

Like I said: possible tinfoil. Just an information point.

(ed. Great analysis, and no, not necessarily tinfoil.)